May 31, 2019 – Bank of America’s Phillip Fischer was of the view that the recent surge in income tax collections is not sustainable. April collections was 36% higher y-o-y and 56% higher than April 2017 levels.

Select comps for states and NYC:

New York – up 57% vs 2018; up 84% vs 2017
New York City – up 44% vs 2018; up 65% vs 2017
New Jersey – up 56% vs 2018; up 55% vs 2017
California – up 35% vs 2018; up 50% vs 2017
Massachusetts – up 37% vs 2018; up 55% vs 2017

The two primary drivers for the surge were timing (taxpayers prepaying 2018 liabilities in 2017, thus increasing April 2019 collections vs April 2018) and continued economic growth. Thus – collection growth for 2020 is expected to revert to normal levels of growth.

Contact Jumanne Johnson at JJ@BuyMuni.com.